| Critical test for Kenyan nation  Kenya's Presidential candidates after the second and final debate. (Pix: The Habari Network). Mobhare Matinyi, Washington DC. The Citizen, Tanzania. Thursday, 28 February 2013 21:48 On Monday, Kenya will face an extremely crucial test to prove to the world that it is a politically mature nation worthy of respect. President Mwai Kibaki, 81, has completed his second term, and Kenyans will be electing their fourth president since independence. The world still remembers the violence that befell Kenya after the December 2007 presidential poll when more than 1,000 people died. Frankly though, Kenya has never had peaceful multi-party elections although according to the Carter Centre the 2002 elections were slightly better compared to 1992 and 1997 despite some violence during campaigning. During the December 1992 presidential polls, the incumbent president Daniel arap Moi, running under KANU, won by a mere 36.4 per cent. In 1997 things got more ethnic as Moi, a Kalenjin, did better by scooping 40.6 per cent while Kibaki, a Kikuyu, moved one position up with 31 per cent, ahead of Raila Odinga, a Luo, at 10.8 per cent. The remaining votes were distributed among 12 other candidates. As was the case in 1992, the Rift Valley Province spilled more blood for the same usual reasons – land dispute and ethnic hatred. Moi knowing that he would leave office in 2002 to honour the two-term limit, appointed his heir to the throne, Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of the fist president, Jomo Kenyatta. Then, he got the loyalty of Musalia Mudavadi, a Luhya, and William Ruto, his fellow Kalenjin, but that wasn't enough for KANU. That misadventure united the opposition under the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) with Kibaki as their candidate. NARC was formed by all major tribes of Kenya except the Kalenjin; in fact even the Kikuyu dumped their son Kenyatta because of Moi. Kenyans wanted a change, so the rest of the major tribes united behind Kibaki who then received 61.3 per cent of votes while Kenyatta got 30.2 per cent. KANU collapsed for good. Come 2007 the opposition coalition left Kibaki alone with his dominant Kikuyu, and other minorities like Meru and Embu under their Party of National Unity (PNU), which was weak in numbers but strong in power. Odinga formed the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) but fell out with Kalonzo Musyoka who then created his ODM-Kenya with his Kamba tribesfolk. Odinga obtained the support of the Luhya, Kalenjin and Muslims from the Coast, which essentially made him stronger than Kibaki in numbers as indicated by opinion polls. Now, these were the real politics of Kenya, neither ideology nor policy, but tribes. Remember, the Kikuyu are 22 per cent of the population while the Luhya make up 14 per cent, the Luo 13, the Kalenjin 12 and the Kamba 11. The ethnic calculations favoured Odinga who stood for ODM more than the rest, but he wasn't an incumbent, and that made the difference. Anyway, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) announced that Kibaki had won by 46.4 per cent against Odinga's 44.1. Interestingly, the Government recorded 47 and 44 per cent for Kibaki and Odinga respectively. Later in 2008, the American-commissioned exit poll released the results that showed Odinga was the winner by 46 per cent against 40 per cent of Kibaki, well outside the 1.3 per cent margin of error. It didn't matter as Kibaki ruled Kenya for another five years. This time around though, with a new constitution in place, Kibaki retiring, and former enemies, the Kalenjin and Kikuyus camping together because of Kenyatta and Ruto, things may not go wrong. Kenyatta and Ruto are fighting for their lives believing that if they win, then their case at the International Criminal Court (ICC) will be handled in an "African way." Unfortunately though, Odinga is predicting foul play believing that the Kikuyu will rob him of his victory as they did in 2007, and that's serious! Most likely, the first round will not secure over 50 per cent for anyone because of ethnic calculations. So, the Kikuyu have Kenyatta and three others who are Paul Muite, Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth, a Kikuyu-German hybrid. The Luhya have Musalia Mudavadi, Luos have Odinga, while Kalenjins support Kenyatta, and Kambas support Odinga because of Musyoka. Minority Maasai and Muslims have James Ole Kiyiapi and Mohamed Dida respectively. Kenyans are likely to go into the second round for the final battle of the two giants, Kenyatta and Odinga, but what matters is peace and tranquility. Strictly, the Kenyan nation is facing a critical test of its character, and we hope our fellow East Africans will pass with flying colours. |
http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/editorial-analysis/20-analysis-opinions/29230-critical-test-for-kenyan-nation
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