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 |  |  | |  | | Press Release, 19 January 2016 |  | For immediate release |  | | |
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SIPRI and PAX: Hope for peace in South Sudan, but fragmentation still a risk (Stockholm, Utrecht, 19 January 2016) On 22 January, just over 25 months after the start of the civil war in South Sudan, the scheduled formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity will be one of the first major milestones in the peace process. The swearing in of the transitional government would be enormous progress, but nothing in South Sudan is certain and the event may just as easily be postponed. According to the report “Scenarios for South Sudan in 2020” released today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and Dutch peace organisation PAX, there is hope for a peaceful future if the 2015 peace agreement is implemented and the peace process opened up beyond the current parties. Otherwise, the human cost will likely be tremendous and the country might even risk complete fragmentation. | |
| The report outlines five possible scenarios for South Sudan’s future, developed through extensive consultation with a diverse group of South Sudanese actors. In the best scenario, ‘United in diversity’, the 2015 peace agreement is implemented and the peace process consolidated and deepened. Two scenarios, ‘Dictatorship’ and ‘21 Kingdoms’, show at what tremendous cost, in human lives and repression, the victory of either side may come. One scenario, ‘Divided leadership’, illustrates how a badly implemented peace process will lead to renewed war. The last scenario, ‘Fragmentation’, explores how the continuation of war may lead to a complete breakdown of governance.
Since signing the South Sudan peace agreement, president Salva Kiir’s government and Riek Machar’s armed opposition have frequently confirmed their adherence to the implementation process. Yet violent confrontations and human rights abuses have continued and the parties seem to be more interested in victory than in peace. “In spite of all the obstacles, I remain hopeful, as the leaders of South Sudan still have the opportunity to pull their country out of the miseries of war and move towards a ‘United in diversity’ scenario”, says Mr Andrea Minalla, PAX Project Manager in South Sudan.
Dr Jaïr van der Lijn, Head of SIPRI’s Peace Operations and Conflict Management team and author of the report, warns: “However, if South Sudan’s leaders continue to believe that they can potentially win the war, then I am very pessimistic, because then the fragmentation of the country is regrettably a very likely scenario. In such a scenario, I am afraid also the international community is unlikely to come to the rescue, in spite of the horrific human suffering and large refugee flows.”
The scenarios are intended to gather thoughts on possible long-term developments, stimulate open debate and may assist South Sudan and its international partners in preparing for the future.
For information and interview requests contact:
SIPRI Communications Director Stephanie Blenckner (blenckner@sipri.org, +46 8 655 97 47) or Kate Sullivan (sullivan@sipri.org, +46 766 286 171)
PAX Communications & Press: André van der Vlugt (vandervlugt@paxforpeace.nl, +31 (0)6 481 028 82)
PAX South Sudan: Andrea Minalla (minalla@paxforpeace.nl, +211 955 564 513)
PAX Netherlands Peace Foundation (PAX)
PAX works with involved civilians and partners in areas of war to protect human security, to prevent and end armed violence, and to build peace with justice. PAX has been engaged with (South) Sudan for over 20 years. PAX operates independently of political interests.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. SIPRI is regularly ranked among the most respected think tanks worldwide. | |
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Scenarios for South Sudan in 2020: Peace: the only thing worth fighting for | Although a peace agreement that includes important steps to build a stable and peaceful South Sudan was signed in 2015, the future of the country remains highly uncertain. The scenarios described in this report are intended to give a picture of how South Sudan might look in 2020. They show that if the parties stick to the 2015 peace agreement and implement, consolidate and deepen the peace process, slowly South Sudan may be on the road towards a positive future. However, if the 2015 peace agreement does not hold and the peace process is not opened-up, the future is far less hopeful and entails horrible devastation and/or repression.
This report is published in cooperation with the Dutch peace organization PAX. The scenarios are intended to gather thoughts on possible long-term developments, stimulate open debate and may assist South Sudan and its international partners in preparing for the future. The project is funded by PAX.describes the trends in international arms sales that are revealed by the new data.
Download the report | | | | |
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© SIPRI 2016. ISSN 1654-8264. Contact SIPRI by email: sipri@sipri.org; telephone: +46 8/655 97 00;
or post: SIPRI, Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden, or visit us online at www.sipri.org
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