Article by Victor Mlunde
It is clear, the lake border dispute talks between Tanzania and her Southern neighbour Malawi over lake Nyasa have obviously hit a snag after the Maputo mediation team failed to give a decisive ruling in March 2014, with Malawi still maintaining her claim over total ownership of the lake based on 1890 Heligoland Treaty that reportedly draws the border line at Tanzania side of the lake.
The author of the article, Victor Mlunde is a Dar es Salaam based Political and Development Consultant with expertise in Elections and Conflicts Resolution in the Great Lakes region. He can be easily reached through +255 714 289428 andvicmlunde@yahoo.com
-- It is clear, the lake border dispute talks between Tanzania and her Southern neighbour Malawi over lake Nyasa have obviously hit a snag after the Maputo mediation team failed to give a decisive ruling in March 2014, with Malawi still maintaining her claim over total ownership of the lake based on 1890 Heligoland Treaty that reportedly draws the border line at Tanzania side of the lake.
On the other hand, Tanzania dismisses Malawi's position claiming the colonial treaty was a human mistake because the lake is a historical heritage of all surrounding communities and generations who shared its
coastlines in Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique even before the arrival of the aliens.
coastlines in Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique even before the arrival of the aliens.
As we speak, even Chissano's team of mediators comprising of the most prominent diplomats on the continent such as former presidents Mbeki of South Africa and Festus Mogae of Botswana could neither lead to any diplomatic breakthrough nor compromise.
Background - "Banda and Nyerere did not see eye to eye"
During the times of Presidents Nyerere and Kamuzu Banda, history recalls that relations between the people of Tanzania and Malawi were good, but official relations were strained. This is attributed to the fact that Dr Hastings Kamuzu Banda supported apartheid whereas Mwalimu Nyerere supported the ANC; tensions were further heightened when Banda suspected Tanzania was aiding and abetting the attempts by prominent Malawi exiles to subvert his regime. The lake dispute was fed into this tension, indeed Kamuzu Banda and Nyerere did not see eye to eye.
Present day motives behind the dispute?
The dispute over Lake Nyasa ownership which started in the early 1960s and cooled off soon after, resurfaced immediately in 2000s after geological surveys discovered a possibility of oil and gas reserves in the lake.
Although the eighth largest lake in the world is also endowed with huge fish resources able to sustain more than 600,000 people per year, yet the most pressing issue underlining the tension now clearly seems to be the scramble for possible oil and gas finds in the lake.
To make the matters even worse, both parties have been trading accusations of foul play against each other, with Tanzania ordering Malawi to suspend private exploration for oil and gas in the lake.
Bygones be bygones, the outcome of Tuesday general elections in Malawi could be a potential game changer expected to determine which policy Lilongwe is likely to adopt towards the border dispute with Tanzania, given the fact that successive Malawi administrations had adopted different approaches, both silent and hard-line over time.
Presidential contenders and their potential stance on the dispute
There are reportedly 12 presidential contenders with four of them having a high chance of winning the Tuesday elections.
Number one contender is the incumbent Joyce Banda (Peoples Party - PP), her hard-line stance on the lake dispute and her ultimatum to refer the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), already threatens the very life of Maputo mediation process, brokered by eminent personalities on the continent led by former Mozambican president, comrade Joacquim Chissano.
Another frontrunner is a preacher-turned-politician, Lazarus Chikwera (Malawi Congress Party - MCP), his international policy in response to the lake dispute is largely a puzzle but likely passive.
Then there is the youthful Atupele Muluzi (United Democratic Front - UDF), the 35 years-old son of former president Bakili Muluzi who enjoyed fruitful relations with Tanzania during his tenure and adopted a rather silent policy on the border dispute. This could possibly influence his son to adopt a more diplomatic and productive approach to the conflict if he secures the top most office.
Peter Mutharika, is another leading candidate who is a younger brother of the immediate former president, late Bingu-wa-Mutharika, the soft-spoken initiator of the bilateral negotiations on the border dispute who could not achieve any milestones during his almost decade-long tenure.
It is clear that Tanzania is eagerly waiting to learn the winner of Tuesday's Malawi elections and his/her foreign policy priorities, so that to prepare for a revival of the negotiation process, currently in shambles.
Challenges lying ahead?
Absence of Malawi ambassador in Tanzania – Although the replacement of late Malawi envoy is likely to be appointed in the short-run, the transitional period will likely cause uncertainty over the future of Maputo talks, leaving a diplomatic vacuum that might itself slow down the mediation process at least in the short run.
Tanzania 2015 elections - As Malawians had just concluded its controversial presidential elections yesterday, Tanzania is preparing for its 2015 general elections. No doubt 2015 will be a busy period compounded by the likelihood that some local politicians might engage into anti-Malawi rhetoric during campaigns to boost their local approval ratings/election chances and consequently hurt the delicate border talks.
Arbitration at ICJ, a bitter pill?– Professor Rosalyn Higgins, former head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which may handle the border dispute if diplomacy fails, has already given her legal opinion suggesting that Malawi owns the entire lake.
Potential great lakes-style conflict - Bottom line, whoever comes into power in Malawi should engage with his/her Tanzania opposite number in clearing the cloud of uncertainty for mutual socio-economic benefit of all the people and communities surrounding the lake.
He or she should be committed to avoiding getting into a series prolonged and unproductive mediation processes such as DRC/ Great lakes peace initiatives, Middle-East peace talks or six-party talks in the Korean peninsula.
All in all, the last thing the two neighbours want is having a prolonged mediation process that could indefinitely prevent them from exploiting the oil and gas resources in the lake for development.
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| Source: Gado |
Background - "Banda and Nyerere did not see eye to eye"
During the times of Presidents Nyerere and Kamuzu Banda, history recalls that relations between the people of Tanzania and Malawi were good, but official relations were strained. This is attributed to the fact that Dr Hastings Kamuzu Banda supported apartheid whereas Mwalimu Nyerere supported the ANC; tensions were further heightened when Banda suspected Tanzania was aiding and abetting the attempts by prominent Malawi exiles to subvert his regime. The lake dispute was fed into this tension, indeed Kamuzu Banda and Nyerere did not see eye to eye.
Present day motives behind the dispute?
The dispute over Lake Nyasa ownership which started in the early 1960s and cooled off soon after, resurfaced immediately in 2000s after geological surveys discovered a possibility of oil and gas reserves in the lake.
Although the eighth largest lake in the world is also endowed with huge fish resources able to sustain more than 600,000 people per year, yet the most pressing issue underlining the tension now clearly seems to be the scramble for possible oil and gas finds in the lake.
To make the matters even worse, both parties have been trading accusations of foul play against each other, with Tanzania ordering Malawi to suspend private exploration for oil and gas in the lake.
Bygones be bygones, the outcome of Tuesday general elections in Malawi could be a potential game changer expected to determine which policy Lilongwe is likely to adopt towards the border dispute with Tanzania, given the fact that successive Malawi administrations had adopted different approaches, both silent and hard-line over time.
Presidential contenders and their potential stance on the dispute
 |
There are reportedly 12 presidential contenders with four of them having a high chance of winning the Tuesday elections.
Number one contender is the incumbent Joyce Banda (Peoples Party - PP), her hard-line stance on the lake dispute and her ultimatum to refer the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), already threatens the very life of Maputo mediation process, brokered by eminent personalities on the continent led by former Mozambican president, comrade Joacquim Chissano.
Another frontrunner is a preacher-turned-politician, Lazarus Chikwera (Malawi Congress Party - MCP), his international policy in response to the lake dispute is largely a puzzle but likely passive.
Then there is the youthful Atupele Muluzi (United Democratic Front - UDF), the 35 years-old son of former president Bakili Muluzi who enjoyed fruitful relations with Tanzania during his tenure and adopted a rather silent policy on the border dispute. This could possibly influence his son to adopt a more diplomatic and productive approach to the conflict if he secures the top most office.
Peter Mutharika, is another leading candidate who is a younger brother of the immediate former president, late Bingu-wa-Mutharika, the soft-spoken initiator of the bilateral negotiations on the border dispute who could not achieve any milestones during his almost decade-long tenure.
It is clear that Tanzania is eagerly waiting to learn the winner of Tuesday's Malawi elections and his/her foreign policy priorities, so that to prepare for a revival of the negotiation process, currently in shambles.
Challenges lying ahead?
Absence of Malawi ambassador in Tanzania – Although the replacement of late Malawi envoy is likely to be appointed in the short-run, the transitional period will likely cause uncertainty over the future of Maputo talks, leaving a diplomatic vacuum that might itself slow down the mediation process at least in the short run.
Tanzania 2015 elections - As Malawians had just concluded its controversial presidential elections yesterday, Tanzania is preparing for its 2015 general elections. No doubt 2015 will be a busy period compounded by the likelihood that some local politicians might engage into anti-Malawi rhetoric during campaigns to boost their local approval ratings/election chances and consequently hurt the delicate border talks.
Arbitration at ICJ, a bitter pill?– Professor Rosalyn Higgins, former head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which may handle the border dispute if diplomacy fails, has already given her legal opinion suggesting that Malawi owns the entire lake.
Potential great lakes-style conflict - Bottom line, whoever comes into power in Malawi should engage with his/her Tanzania opposite number in clearing the cloud of uncertainty for mutual socio-economic benefit of all the people and communities surrounding the lake.
He or she should be committed to avoiding getting into a series prolonged and unproductive mediation processes such as DRC/ Great lakes peace initiatives, Middle-East peace talks or six-party talks in the Korean peninsula.
All in all, the last thing the two neighbours want is having a prolonged mediation process that could indefinitely prevent them from exploiting the oil and gas resources in the lake for development.
---
The author of the article, Victor Mlunde is a Dar es Salaam based Political and Development Consultant with expertise in Elections and Conflicts Resolution in the Great Lakes region. He can be easily reached through +255 714 289428 andvicmlunde@yahoo.com
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